Tour De France Route Analysis

This is the 100^th edition of the world’s largest annual sporting event. The route has been back-loaded by race owners ASO, with a far more mountainous route than last year, the highlight being touted as the double ascent of the iconic Alpe d’Huez on stage 18.

Well before that, this Saturday, 29^th June, sees the race start with a first ever visit to Corscia. The opening flat stage will see the sprinters to the fore, and one will take the yellow jersey, but there will be no more pickings for them until the mainland as the island is hilly and it is this terrain the race will go over on the next two stages.

On return to the mainland there is a short Team Time Trial which may alter the overall position depending on who is in yellow at this point. Three stages for the fast men are followed by the first summit finish in the Pyrenees at Ax 3 Domaines. It is here the general classification (GC) will really start to take shape for the first time. At this stage last year Team Sky leader Bradley Wiggins took the lead and held it all the way to Paris. My concern is that though Wiggo is injured this year, Sky have riders more than capable of winning the Tour, and the same will occur this year with last year’s runner up Chris Froome (CF), also of team Sky. They have shown this year they are clearly the best stage race team on the planet, and their effective tactics could well throttle the race for overall.

The second Pyrenean stage will not affect the overall as the GC contenders will not waste energy here when it will be required for the final week.

The Individual Time Trial (ITT) on stage 11 will further cement the overall positions with the TT experts taking time on the climbers. 

Possibly the stage with the most influence on the race will be Stage 15 to the Giant of Provence, Mount Ventoux. It is a horror of a climb, the last few kilometres on a moon like surface, with the sun beating down, no shelter, and if the Mistral blows, havoc could ensue. At the end of this stage I predict the GC will have a look, very similar to what it will be in Paris, especially the podium places.

My concern is that by this stage Sky will have strangled the race so much, that the others will start defending their positions for podium or top 10, and will not risk attacking and losing all. Why such defending goes on, will be covered in a subsequent post.

A mountain ITT will just solidify the GC, while leaves us with the much talked about Alpe’s for the final hurdle. There is always interest in how each stage develops, and I foresee this being the focus of the final stages in the mountains. The much talked about the double ascent of Alpe d’Huez I fear is just that. Though it is a mountain with the highest rated category, HC, it won’t cause any of GC contenders to attack earlier than they would have if another HC climb had been used.  It will be used in the day’s breakaway for those teams looking to gain as much publicity as possible for their sponsors.

The next stage has two HC climbs. But these are too early in the day to have any real effect for the leaders, and powder will be kept dry for the next stage final summit finish to Semnoz which I sense will be a procession by this point.

This leaves the final stage on the Champs-Elysees, which for the first time ever, will be held in the evening, rather than mid afternoon.

 Clearly ASO had to come up with something a bit special for the 100^th edition of the race, and in the start in Corsica, and the final stage in the evening they have. I do believe though that they have back-loaded the race too much, especially considering how dominant a team Sky have been this year, which will be detrimental to producing an exciting race, especially in the second half.

I do hope I’m wrong as there as few sports as exciting as Le Tour when it goes down to the wire.