This
is the 100th edition of the race, and like last year it could well
see two Sky riders on the podium. Unlike last year one of them won’t be Bradley
Wiggins, as he’s injured, thereby saving Sky team leadership issues. His
teammate, Chris Froome (CF), is the clear bookies favourite, and in Ritchie
Porte (RP), they have a rider more than capable of making the top 3. CF is
rated by a lot of pundits as the best climber in the race, and he can Time
Trial (TT) with the best. Sky have shown this year, that they are, by a margin,
the best stage race team going. It’s just not the assembled team of riders,
everything from support staff, nutrition, and recovery are looked at to the nth
degree, analysed and changed if required. In the last two years, Sky have
re-written the rule book, with everyone now playing catch-up. Taking all these
aspects into consideration it is hard to see past CF, barring the first week
crashes which always puts one of the General Classification (GC) rider out of
contention.
This
pair have won five stages races this year, including the prestigious Paris –
Nice and Dauphine, the latter used by Sky as a final dry-run for the big event.
The
main challenge for the Sky duo, will come from Alberto Contador (Bertie). He’s
won Le Tour twice, but since a doping ban last year, has shown a clear drop in
form from the old days. He may still be able to attack in mountains, but he can
no longer sustain it, making it easier for rivals to catch him up. His TT
skills, based on this year’s Dauphine, have clearly diminished, for whatever
reason. His Saxo Bank team, though they pinched Rogers from Sky in the off
season, are nowhere near as strong, and he’ll struggle for helpers in the
mountains, who will be required to put CF/RP under pressure. Top 5 is a
distinct possibility, with the bottom step of the podium being likely.
The
other main challenge will also come from another Spaniard, the pure climber Joaquim Rodriguez. Based on last year’s Giro & Vuelta,
if he’s in a position to win, he will manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of
victory. Le Tour is much bigger than these other two Grand Tours, and I predict
top 5 for him. His team, Katusha, though strong very in the mountains, will
struggle protecting him in the first week on the flat, and can see him being
the one who crashes out in the first week, or loses enough time to be put out
of contention.
While Sky no longer
have leadership issues, BMC do. Tejay Van Garderen was 5th last
year, getting the better of 2011 tour winner Cadel Evans (Toady). The latter
was 3rd at this year’s Giro which he won’t have fully recovered
from. I think his best days are behind him, and reckon BMC should make TGV
their main man. Saying that he is still developing, and the mountains will find
him out. The smart thing to do, would be for BMC to play the long game,
try and take the pressure off him, and see if he can repeat last year’s result.
Top 10 for both of them, top 5 a possibility for TVG.
As for the others,
Ryder Hesjedal is flattering to deceive, and will be lucky if he gets top 10,
if he makes it to Paris. Jurgen Van Den Broeck will diesel himself to a top 10,
but his team Lotto will split between him and Andre Griepel for the sprints,
and as Sky showed last year, in this day and age you can’t focus on two objectives.
Alejandro Valverde
suffers from the Roberto Heras virus, in that he really struggles on the Tour
climbs, but goes like the clappers 6 weeks later in his home Tour on steeper,
harder terrain. A stage win, at best, for the unrepentant doper.
As for the home
nation, Rolland can’t Time Trail for toffee, and I initially had him down for
top 10 for him, and a good chance for either the Ventoux or d’Huez stages. The
BUT is he’s got a cloud currently hanging over him due to blood values which
need explained. His team should ensure he doesn’t start unless he can properly
give an explanation for said values, but if not, I feel the pressure will be
too great for him to deal with and he’ll drop off the radar. Thibout Pinot,
after a top 10 last year, needs to see if he can repeat, though the expectation
and pressure on him will be much greater this time round. Voeckler will again
no doubt bag a stage or two, and the same could apply to Fedrigo. As for the
rest it will be to get in as many breaks as possible and hope against hope to
come up with a stage win, or heaven forbid, yellow for a short spell.
The green points
competition could well be done and dusted quite quickly. Last year’s winner
Sagan will pick up points all over the shop, and I expect him to repeat with 2
– 3 stage wins. Mark Cavendish (Cav), unarguably the fastest sprinter, will
have a full team behind him, rather than being a bottle carrier as he was last
year. I can easily see him getting 4 – 5 stages, but Sagan will pick up points
when the stages go uphill, when Cav will get dropped from the main peleton.
Andre Greipel may have the best lead out train with his Lotto team, and while
last year was a big breakthrough for him, with Cav not relegated to second
priorities, he’ll ‘only’ pick up 1 – 2 stages this year.
As for King Of The
Mountains category (KOM) your guess is as good as mine. It’s a pale imitation
of the competition it used to be.
If I were a betting
person I’d go for a top three of
1. Froome
2. Porte3. Bertie
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